Source context — The IMF’s July 2025 assessment estimated non-oil growth at 2.5 percent in 2024, following 13.8 percent in 2023. It connected the slowdown to reduced public investment, a weaker trade balance and financing constraints with arrears. Its tables include forecasts for 2025 and 2026; those forecasts are not subsequently observed outcomes.
Our analysis — A company need not sell directly to a ministry to be exposed to public finances. Its customers may depend on government payments, or its distributors may serve households whose spending depends on public employment. Mapping those connections is more useful than assigning every private firm the same national risk label.
Start with receivables by customer and age. Then test a slower-payment scenario against payroll, supplier terms and inventory commitments. A business can report sales growth while becoming less able to meet its obligations if cash collection deteriorates. The assessment should distinguish a temporary timing mismatch from a customer that may not pay.
For advisory programs, this suggests combining market development with financial management. Diversifying customers helps only if new buyers generate collectible revenue at acceptable margins. Any current country assessment needs more recent fiscal releases and firm-level evidence alongside this historical IMF baseline.